This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing Phil’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
Phil | training | published before 2020 | 121 | 128 |
Phil | validation | published 2020 | 20 | 12 |
Phil | test | published after 2020 | 5 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
Phil | Capstone Games | 4.1% | 0.1% | 37.07 |
Phil | Space Cowboys | 5.0% | 0.2% | 27.96 |
Phil | Fantasy Flight Games | 19.8% | 1.1% | 18.46 |
Phil | Asmodee | 32.2% | 2.5% | 13.03 |
Phil | Renegade Game Studios | 3.3% | 0.4% | 8.36 |
Phil | ZMan Games | 11.6% | 1.4% | 8.27 |
Phil | Map Continental National Scale | 14.9% | 1.9% | 7.91 |
Phil | Pegasus Spiele | 13.2% | 2.2% | 6.13 |
Phil | Murder Mystery | 7.4% | 1.5% | 5.04 |
Phil | Collectible Components | 6.6% | 1.7% | 3.78 |
Phil | Cryptozoic Entertainment | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.43 |
Phil | Deduction Game | 14.9% | 5.1% | 2.94 |
Phil | Food Cooking | 3.3% | 1.2% | 2.78 |
Phil | Fantasy | 14.0% | 11.9% | 1.18 |
Phil | Movement Points | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.06 |
Phil | Dice Rolling | 28.9% | 28.4% | 1.02 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.935 | yes |
2 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.895 | no |
3 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.857 | no |
4 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.810 | no |
5 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.794 | yes |
6 | 2016 | 176083 | Hit Z Road | 0.765 | no |
7 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.754 | no |
8 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.743 | yes |
9 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.717 | no |
10 | 1999 | 552 | Bus | 0.656 | no |
11 | 2012 | 124742 | Android: Netrunner | 0.642 | no |
12 | 2017 | 221107 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | 0.630 | no |
13 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.626 | no |
14 | 2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.613 | no |
15 | 2019 | 276025 | Maracaibo | 0.596 | yes |
16 | 2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.590 | no |
17 | 2010 | 25292 | Merchants & Marauders | 0.584 | yes |
18 | 2012 | 121921 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | 0.573 | no |
19 | 2000 | 478 | Citadels | 0.564 | no |
20 | 2004 | 9609 | War of the Ring | 0.564 | no |
21 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.540 | no |
22 | 2014 | 148228 | Splendor | 0.527 | no |
23 | 2010 | 73171 | Earth Reborn | 0.515 | no |
24 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.505 | no |
25 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.493 | no |
26 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.487 | yes |
27 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.480 | no |
28 | 2015 | 181530 | Runebound (Third Edition) | 0.464 | no |
29 | 1982 | 2511 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Thames Murders & Other Cases | 0.460 | yes |
30 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.457 | no |
31 | 2011 | 103343 | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game (Second Edition) | 0.451 | no |
32 | 2019 | 253344 | Cthulhu: Death May Die | 0.451 | no |
33 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.449 | no |
34 | 2016 | 204305 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | 0.417 | yes |
35 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.415 | no |
36 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.387 | no |
37 | 2018 | 256226 | Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra | 0.383 | no |
38 | 2017 | 234671 | Pandemic: Rising Tide | 0.376 | no |
39 | 2015 | 182694 | Watson & Holmes | 0.375 | yes |
40 | 2018 | 260428 | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | 0.375 | yes |
41 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.347 | yes |
42 | 2015 | 170216 | Blood Rage | 0.340 | no |
43 | 1999 | 88 | Torres | 0.339 | no |
44 | 2014 | 157403 | Black Fleet | 0.337 | no |
45 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.333 | yes |
46 | 1999 | 54 | Tikal | 0.326 | no |
47 | 2016 | 198773 | Codenames: Pictures | 0.313 | no |
48 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.310 | no |
49 | 2018 | 252328 | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | 0.309 | yes |
50 | 2009 | 54043 | Jaipur | 0.303 | no |
51 | 2008 | 33107 | Senji | 0.302 | no |
52 | 2011 | 59959 | Letters from Whitechapel | 0.301 | yes |
53 | 2007 | 28720 | Brass: Lancashire | 0.301 | no |
54 | 1998 | 3 | Samurai | 0.296 | no |
55 | 2008 | 38159 | Ultimate Werewolf: Ultimate Edition | 0.294 | no |
56 | 2018 | 257501 | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | 0.290 | yes |
57 | 2018 | 257499 | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | 0.290 | no |
58 | 2017 | 184151 | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | 0.289 | no |
59 | 2013 | 127024 | Room 25 | 0.286 | no |
60 | 2015 | 172386 | Mombasa | 0.284 | no |
61 | 2017 | 230802 | Azul | 0.284 | yes |
62 | 2014 | 145371 | Three Kingdoms Redux | 0.283 | no |
63 | 2001 | 1345 | Genoa | 0.273 | no |
64 | 2012 | 120677 | Terra Mystica | 0.272 | yes |
65 | 2016 | 198928 | Pandemic: Iberia | 0.272 | no |
66 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.268 | no |
67 | 2006 | 14808 | Marvel Heroes | 0.254 | no |
68 | 2012 | 104710 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | 0.250 | no |
69 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.248 | yes |
70 | 2019 | 271896 | Star Wars: Outer Rim | 0.248 | no |
71 | 2017 | 190082 | Whitehall Mystery | 0.247 | yes |
72 | 2017 | 223931 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | 0.244 | yes |
73 | 2015 | 181279 | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | 0.243 | yes |
74 | 2011 | 70919 | Takenoko | 0.235 | no |
75 | 2010 | 62219 | Dominant Species | 0.234 | no |
76 | 2019 | 283863 | The Magnificent | 0.232 | no |
77 | 2006 | 21287 | Bison: Thunder on the Prairie | 0.229 | no |
78 | 2008 | 30549 | Pandemic | 0.228 | no |
79 | 2002 | 4390 | Carcassonne: Hunters and Gatherers | 0.221 | no |
80 | 2004 | 10547 | Betrayal at House on the Hill | 0.218 | no |
81 | 2018 | 254591 | Heroes of Terrinoth | 0.218 | no |
82 | 2010 | 77130 | Sid Meier's Civilization: The Board Game | 0.218 | no |
83 | 2006 | 25613 | Through the Ages: A Story of Civilization | 0.218 | no |
84 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.214 | no |
85 | 2015 | 146508 | T.I.M.E Stories | 0.213 | no |
86 | 2005 | 20963 | Fury of Dracula (Second Edition) | 0.210 | no |
87 | 2005 | 18723 | Aye, Dark Overlord! The Red Box | 0.209 | no |
88 | 2017 | 238065 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Vanishing from Hyde Park | 0.206 | no |
89 | 2008 | 39463 | Cosmic Encounter | 0.206 | yes |
90 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.202 | yes |
91 | 2016 | 204837 | Game of Thrones: The Iron Throne | 0.199 | no |
92 | 1995 | 112 | Condottiere | 0.199 | no |
93 | 2010 | 70512 | Luna | 0.199 | no |
94 | 2019 | 284818 | Caylus 1303 | 0.198 | no |
95 | 2014 | 164153 | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 0.198 | yes |
96 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.197 | no |
97 | 2009 | 45134 | Arcana | 0.196 | no |
98 | 2018 | 246297 | Shadows: Amsterdam | 0.195 | no |
99 | 2008 | 35677 | Le Havre | 0.194 | no |
100 | 2009 | 43868 | The Adventurers: The Temple of Chac | 0.194 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.93 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.80 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think Phil is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.895 | no |
2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.857 | no |
2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.810 | no |
2016 | 176083 | Hit Z Road | 0.765 | no |
2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.754 | no |
What games does the model think Phil is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2016 | 203417 | Exit: The Game – The Secret Lab | 0.001 | yes |
1876 | 521 | Crokinole | 0.001 | yes |
2019 | 247367 | Air, Land, and Sea | 0.001 | yes |
2016 | 175640 | Vinhos Deluxe Edition | 0.002 | yes |
2018 | 244228 | Reef | 0.002 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Android: Netrunner | Glass Road | Splendor | 504 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Rising Sun | Aftermath |
2 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Room 25 | Black Fleet | Runebound (Third Edition) | Hit Z Road | Gloomhaven | Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra | Maracaibo |
3 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Three Kingdoms Redux | Watson & Holmes | Star Wars: Rebellion | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
4 | Terra Mystica | 1775: Rebellion | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | Blood Rage | Terraforming Mars | Gaia Project | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
5 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Impulse | Orléans | Mombasa | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | Spirit Island | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | Era: Medieval Age |
6 | Space Cadets | BANG! The Dice Game | Arcadia Quest | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | Codenames: Pictures | Pandemic: Rising Tide | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
7 | Love Letter | Eldritch Horror | Castles of Mad King Ludwig | T.I.M.E Stories | Pandemic: Iberia | Fallout | Heroes of Terrinoth | Tapestry |
8 | Archipelago | Cappuccino | AquaSphere | Mysterium | Scythe | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | Shadows: Amsterdam | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
9 | Keyflower | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Grand Austria Hotel | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Azul | Newton | Star Wars: Outer Rim |
10 | The Great Zimbabwe | Bruxelles 1893 | Patchwork | Elysium | Game of Thrones: The Iron Throne | Whitehall Mystery | Coimbra | The Magnificent |
11 | Il Vecchio | Concordia | Nations: The Dice Game | Forbidden Stars | Coal Baron: The Great Card Game | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | Fireball Island: The Curse of Vul-Kar | Caylus 1303 |
12 | Kemet | Crossing | Akrotiri | The Voyages of Marco Polo | Black Orchestra | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | Last Bastion |
13 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | Dungeon Twister: The Card Game | Ultimate Werewolf | Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization | Captain Sonar | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Vanishing from Hyde Park | Lords of Hellas | Crusader Kings |
14 | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game | Coal Baron | Colt Express | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | Citadels | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | Narcos: The Board Game | Western Empires |
15 | Clash of Cultures | Forbidden Desert | Arkwright | Porta Nigra | Agricola (Revised Edition) | Stop Thief! | Treasure Island | Hellenica: Story of Greece |
16 | Zombicide | BattleLore: Second Edition | VivaJava: The Coffee Game: The Dice Game | Star Wars: Armada | Codenames: Deep Undercover | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Concordia Venus | Crystal Palace |
17 | The Palaces of Carrara | Carcassonne: South Seas | King of New York | Risk: Europe | A Feast for Odin | 878 Vikings: Invasions of England | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – In Pursuit of Cabrakan | Unlock!: Epic Adventures |
18 | Mafia: Vendetta | Patchistory | Gaïa | Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 | Star Wars: Destiny | Riverboat | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures | Pipeline |
19 | Libertalia | Rococo | Deus | Codenames | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | Altiplano | Cosmic Run: Regeneration | Unmatched Game System |
20 | The Manhattan Project | Petits meurtres & faits divers: au tribunal | Warhammer 40,000: Conquest | Star Realms: Colony Wars | New Angeles | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | Star Realms: Frontiers | Yukon Airways |
21 | Agricola: All Creatures Big and Small | Nauticus | La Granja | The King Is Dead | Covert | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Temple of Ra | Century: Eastern Wonders | Slyville |
22 | Star Wars: The Card Game | Ultimate Werewolf: Inquisition | Fields of Arle | Love Letter: The Hobbit – The Battle of the Five Armies | Pandemic: Reign of Cthulhu | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Doo-Arann Dungeon | Betrayal Legacy | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures – Expedition: Challenger |
23 | Coup | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Deck-Building Game | Camel Up | Mission: Red Planet (Second Edition) | Inis | Heaven & Ale | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | Tiny Towns |
24 | Würfelwurst | Gearworld: The Borderlands | Abyss | Drakon (Fourth Edition) | The Arrival | Codenames: Duet | WARIGIN | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
25 | Mutant Meeples | Warhammer: Diskwars | La Isla | Lanterns: The Harvest Festival | Hoax (Second Edition) | Richard the Lionheart | Renegade | Century: A New World |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
Phil | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.904 |
Phil | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.792 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.491 | yes |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.372 | no |
2020 | 300001 | Renature | 0.285 | no |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.249 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.230 | yes |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.212 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.195 | no |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.155 | no |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.141 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.138 | no |
2020 | 271524 | TIME Stories Revolution: A Midsummer Night | 0.130 | no |
2020 | 287742 | TIME Stories Revolution: The Hadal Project | 0.120 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.108 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.107 | no |
2020 | 300877 | New York Zoo | 0.105 | yes |
2020 | 327913 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Arsène Lupin und der große weiße Diamant | 0.089 | no |
2020 | 296151 | Viscounts of the West Kingdom | 0.081 | no |
2020 | 301880 | Raiders of Scythia | 0.072 | no |
2020 | 301767 | Mysterium Park | 0.067 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.062 | yes |
2020 | 294788 | Conqueror: Final Conquest | 0.059 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.059 | no |
2020 | 304285 | Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game | 0.057 | no |
2020 | 293889 | Fallout Shelter: The Board Game | 0.057 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.057 | yes |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.053 | no |
2020 | 299592 | Beez | 0.052 | no |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.051 | no |
2020 | 318084 | Furnace | 0.049 | no |
2020 | 295905 | Cosmic Frog | 0.047 | no |
2020 | 279537 | The Search for Planet X | 0.046 | yes |
2020 | 308652 | Age of Dogfights: WW1 | 0.042 | no |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.042 | no |
2020 | 302809 | Betrayal at Mystery Mansion | 0.042 | no |
2020 | 319966 | The King Is Dead: Second Edition | 0.040 | yes |
2020 | 286749 | Hansa Teutonica: Big Box | 0.040 | yes |
2020 | 304420 | Bonfire | 0.039 | no |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.038 | yes |
2020 | 301716 | Glasgow | 0.038 | no |
2020 | 293296 | Splendor: Marvel | 0.037 | no |
2020 | 294235 | Crime Zoom: His Last Card | 0.037 | no |
2020 | 321305 | Crime Zoom: Bird of Ill Omen | 0.037 | no |
2020 | 321306 | Crime Zoom: A Deadly Writer | 0.037 | no |
2020 | 302465 | Obsidia | 0.036 | no |
2020 | 299179 | Chancellorsville 1863 | 0.035 | no |
2020 | 320819 | Dinner in Paris | 0.034 | no |
2020 | 300327 | The Castles of Tuscany | 0.034 | no |
2020 | 312251 | Curious Cargo | 0.034 | no |
2020 | 297486 | Ride the Rails | 0.034 | no |
2020 | 299074 | Space Battle Lunchtime Card Game | 0.032 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.689 | no |
2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.657 | yes |
2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.577 | no |
2021 | 339484 | Savannah Park | 0.438 | no |
2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.415 | yes |
2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.409 | no |
2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.333 | yes |
2021 | 344277 | Corrosion | 0.326 | no |
2022 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.270 | no |
2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.257 | no |
2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.247 | no |
2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.228 | no |
2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.178 | no |
2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.155 | no |
2021 | 291859 | Riftforce | 0.153 | yes |
2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.121 | no |
2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.120 | no |
2023 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.116 | no |
2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.115 | no |
2022 | 341945 | La Granja: Deluxe Master Set | 0.104 | no |
2022 | 326933 | Unmatched: Redemption Row | 0.104 | no |
2022 | 326934 | Unmatched: Hell's Kitchen | 0.104 | no |
2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.104 | no |
2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.100 | no |
2022 | 346199 | A Game of Thrones: B'Twixt | 0.100 | no |
2022 | 326945 | Castles of Mad King Ludwig: Collector's Edition | 0.087 | no |
2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.087 | no |
2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.087 | no |
2021 | 299255 | Vienna Connection | 0.086 | no |
2021 | 324957 | The Snallygaster Situation: Kids on Bikes Board Game | 0.084 | no |
2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.080 | no |
2021 | 338760 | Imperial Steam | 0.078 | no |
2021 | 311920 | Ultimate Werewolf: Extreme | 0.077 | no |
2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.072 | no |
2021 | 338834 | MicroMacro: Crime City – Full House | 0.067 | no |
2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.065 | no |
2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.064 | no |
2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.061 | no |
2021 | 326804 | Rorschach | 0.061 | no |
2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.060 | no |
2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.059 | no |
2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.057 | no |
2021 | 325698 | Juicy Fruits | 0.056 | no |
2021 | 325022 | Coffee Traders | 0.056 | no |
2021 | 339905 | Love Letter: Princess Princess Ever After | 0.054 | no |
2021 | 348461 | Castle Break | 0.053 | no |
2021 | 298069 | Cubitos | 0.052 | no |
2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.052 | no |
2021 | 333553 | For the King (and Me) | 0.050 | no |
2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.049 | no |
2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.048 | no |
2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.047 | no |
2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.047 | no |
2021 | 295947 | Cascadia | 0.047 | no |
2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.046 | no |
2021 | 307862 | Dollars to Donuts | 0.044 | no |
2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.043 | no |
2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.043 | no |
2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.042 | no |
2023 | 312959 | Rallyman: DIRT | 0.042 | no |
2021 | 319792 | Fly-A-Way | 0.042 | no |
2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.042 | no |
2021 | 340834 | Gravwell: 2nd Edition | 0.041 | no |
2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.040 | no |
2022 | 357746 | Disney Sorcerer's Arena: Epic Alliances Core Set | 0.040 | no |
2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.040 | no |
2022 | 325348 | Successors (Fourth Edition) | 0.038 | no |
2021 | 298383 | Golem | 0.038 | no |
2021 | 259962 | Stress Botics | 0.038 | no |
2022 | 353470 | Star Wars: Jabba's Palace – A Love Letter Game | 0.037 | no |
2021 | 309319 | Apogee | 0.037 | no |
2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.037 | no |
2021 | 304783 | Hadrian's Wall | 0.037 | no |
2021 | 350636 | Unlock!: Game Adventures | 0.036 | no |
2021 | 313730 | Harsh Shadows | 0.036 | no |
2021 | 340455 | King of the Valley | 0.036 | no |
2021 | 303954 | Pax Viking | 0.036 | no |
2022 | 353905 | Bureau of Investigation: Investigations in Arkham & Elsewhere | 0.035 | no |
2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.035 | no |
2021 | 298378 | Maharaja | 0.034 | no |
2021 | 341169 | Great Western Trail (Second Edition) | 0.034 | no |
2021 | 324242 | Sheepy Time | 0.034 | no |
2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.034 | no |
2021 | 315937 | X-Men: Mutant Insurrection | 0.034 | no |
2021 | 334782 | Bayou Bash | 0.033 | no |
2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.033 | no |
2021 | 347137 | Chronicles of Avel | 0.033 | no |
2021 | 346965 | Azul: Queen's Garden | 0.033 | no |
2021 | 319899 | Decktective: Nightmare in the Mirror | 0.033 | no |
2021 | 291847 | Mantis Falls | 0.031 | no |
2021 | 308989 | Bristol 1350 | 0.031 | no |
2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 340677 | Bad Company | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 263222 | Shards of the Jaguar | 0.030 | no |
2022 | 340325 | Vagrantsong | 0.029 | no |
2022 | 300217 | Merchants of the Dark Road | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 320960 | Roll In One | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 318996 | Welcome to Sysifus Corp | 0.029 | no |
2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.028 | no |
2022 | 280726 | Legacies | 0.028 | no |